The African Democratic Congress has dismissed a forecast by The Economist that President Bola Tinubu could secure re-election in 2027 despite Nigeria’s economic difficulties and widespread discontent.
Phrank Shaibu, Director of Strategic Communication of the ADC Presidential Campaign Council, said in a statement titled “No forecast can overrule the people: Nigerians will vote out Tinubu and elect Atiku” that a prediction is not a final outcome. “These factors matter. But they are not the same as public consent, and none can tell us how Nigerians will vote in January. A forecast is not a verdict,” he stated.
Shaibu argued that Nigerians assess the economy by what their incomes can purchase, what they must forgo, and whether they can maintain a decent standard of living for their families. He also rejected the suggestion that low voter turnout would favour the incumbent.
The low participation in the 2023 presidential election, he said, may have stemmed from apathy, insecurity, distrust, logistical problems or a belief that votes would not count, and should not be read as evidence of majority support for the sitting president. “Tinubu won the election; he did not receive the votes of most registered voters,” Shaibu added.
In its October 1 report, The Economist acknowledged that a worsening security crisis, the impact of economic reforms and the presence of political challengers ought to hinder Tinubu’s re-election prospects. Yet the publication noted that the president’s relative calm is understandable because incumbents in recent Nigerian elections have often benefited from ruling-party machinery and the ability to distribute patronage.
The magazine pointed to several factors that could work in Tinubu’s favour. A Muslim-Muslim ticket might deliver substantial support in the North. Strong economic growth projected at 4.1 percent this year may not yet have improved daily living conditions for many citizens, but few voters are expected to express their disappointment at the ballot box. In the South-West, disappointment with the administration could be offset by ethnic solidarity with a president from the region.
The ADC insists that these considerations will not override the will of the electorate.
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