Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is projected to reach 4 per cent by the end of 2026, Managing Director of Financial Derivatives Company Limited, Bismarck Rewane, said on Wednesday.
Rewane, speaking at the 2026 PEARL Awards Corporate Summit in Lagos, also forecasted that the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) would likely maintain its benchmark monetary policy rate at around 26.5 per cent throughout the year as authorities continue to battle inflationary pressures. He added that meaningful rate cuts are not expected until 2027, after the conclusion of national elections.
Addressing the summit themed “Policy Reform and Corporate Competitiveness: Navigating Towards a Sustainable Edge,” Rewane emphasised the critical role of sustained policy reforms in boosting corporate competitiveness and fostering long-term business growth.
“Reform is a process, not an event. Sustainable reforms are necessary for long-term corporate competitiveness,” he said. “While reforms do not automatically guarantee successful companies, businesses are more likely to emerge, grow and thrive in a well-reformed environment.”
Rewane noted that strong institutions, alongside reforms, are essential drivers of economic growth. Companies operating in stable, reform-oriented economies, he said, are better positioned to expand and deliver value to shareholders. Nigeria’s future competitiveness, he added, will hinge on its ability to sustain and deepen ongoing economic reforms.
On the broader economic outlook, Rewane warned of challenges including rising poverty, food insecurity, and election-related spending, which could widen the fiscal deficit. However, he described Nigeria’s debt position as moderate risk, with public debt expected to remain around 35 per cent of GDP over the medium term.
He called for increased investment in critical areas such as transport infrastructure, electricity, security, and governance, stressing that economic growth must significantly outpace population growth to meaningfully reduce poverty and unemployment.
Rewane projected a stronger external position, with Nigeria’s current account surplus rising to 8.2 per cent of GDP, driven by improved oil export earnings. Gross external reserves are also expected to increase, supported by foreign portfolio inflows and sustained oil revenues. Globally, he forecasted oil prices to trade between $85 and $90 per barrel, averaging $95 per barrel in 2026, before moderating to about $83.2 per barrel in 2027.
He further highlighted the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) recommendations for stronger regulation of cryptocurrencies and stablecoins to protect consumers and curb illicit finance risks.
The economist observed that pre-election liquidity has historically boosted stock market activity, as investors position for capital gains ahead of political transitions.
Chairman of the Board of Directors, PEARL Awards Nigeria, Dr. Faruk Umar, noted that organisations are navigating an era of intense global competition, underscoring the relevance of the summit’s focus on policy reforms and institutional strengthening.
President and Founder of Pearl Awards Nigeria, Mr. Tayo Orekoya, said the theme captures the realities businesses face amid economic reforms. He called for resilience, innovation, and adaptability, adding that stakeholders must work together to translate reforms into tangible benefits.
“The central question before us today is therefore not whether reforms are necessary, but how businesses can successfully navigate a reform-driven environment while building sustainable competitive advantages that endure over time,” Orekoya stated. He highlighted key pillars of sustainable competitiveness, including innovation, corporate governance, operational efficiency, human capital development, technological capability, and environmental and social responsibility.
The summit brought together corporate leaders, policymakers, and stakeholders to discuss strategies for thriving in Nigeria’s evolving economic landscape.
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